Friday, January 08, 2010

Why the US Economy will not recover:


Tribulation Times

READ THE BIBLE IN ONE YEAR: http://www.oneyearbibleonline.com/january.asp?version=63&startmmdd=0101

January 08, 2009  

THE TRIB TIMES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK, GOD WILLING (James 4:15).

(1Ti 6:17-19) Charge the rich of this world not to be highminded nor to trust in the uncertainty of riches, but in the living God (who giveth us abundantly all things to enjoy) To do good, to be rich in good work, to give easily, to communicate to others, To lay up in store for themselves a good foundation against the time to come, that they may lay hold on the true life.

SPOTLIGHT ON THE ECONOMY

CATHOLIC INVESTING: The St. Charles Group was formed in 2005 with the passion of creating investment and planning strategies to serve the needs of our Catholic community.  These services are designed to assist our Catholic clients in the stewardship of the resources in a manner consistent with the social teachings of the Catholic Church and the principles of human dignity and the common good.

ECONOMIC CONCERNS IN THE HEADLINES

Black Swans Abound as Year of Tiger Shows Teeth
'Double Dip' Warning Ahead Of Rate Decision
Potential for Double Dip Increases as Stimulus Fades

OP-ED: That 1937 Feeling

REVIEW: Why the US Economy will not recover

EXCERPT ANALYSIS by Robert McHugh, Ph.D., a Christian stock market technical analyst: The National Association of Realtors reported that its seasonally adjusted index of sales agreements fell an incredible 16 percent in November from October. It was the first decline in seven months. Not a small 2 percent drop after a string of rises, but a plunge. This came in spite of the continuation of the targeted $8,000 tax credit to first time homebuyers and the new $6,500 tax credit for relocating buyers. Further, the home loan modification program of the Central Planners, a $75 billion targeted use of your tax dollars, has been an abject failure. When first passed, we were told 5.0 million of the 80.0 million homeowners in trouble because of debt to home value ratios or income issues would be helped out of their mess. So far, only 50,000 have benefitted. One person on CNBC termed this program a massive "propaganda scheme." That pretty much sums up most of the programs the Central Planners have come up with for the little guy, the household. A few large corporations are getting the real goodies, with essentially nothing of note assisting consumers, small businesses, and small banks. They key to a true economic turnaround is to get these three groups back on their feet. They need meaningful tax rebates, marginal tax rate cuts, high income earning jobs, and in the case of small banks, relief from an onerous FDIC insurance surcharge, which I will discuss in a moment.

A little history from ancient Greece. A policy of allowing a few large and powerful individuals, or in our case banking firms, to drive government economic policy, which is what we see going on now, is called an oligarchy, not a democracy, not even a republic. "Oligarchy" means "rule by a few" in Greek. Almost the entire stimulus plan has been cash handouts to a few large financial corporations. Nothing of any substance has been provided to the masses of the people, who elect representatives, who elect our government. Somehow, the Central Planners are heeding the wishes of Goldman Sachs and friends, with ill-regard to moms and pops on Main Street. This was the politics of ancient Greece from 800 to 650 B.C.

Resentment of aristocratic power over the interests of the masses led to dictatorship. The age of the tyrants followed oligarchy in Greece from 650 to 500 BC. The policy and decision making road this Central planner group has chosen is a dangerous path.

Back to the markets. Our take on the Pending Home Sales Agreement plunge is that the third leg of this massive Bear Market, wave (C ) down, is close to starting. It is assured of coming due to the ignoring of the key generators of economic growth in the U.S. The household (consumer) is 70 percent of GDP. Small businesses generate 80 percent of all new jobs. Small banks provide the fuel for consumers and small businesses, small loans and safe returns on conservative investments.

Community Banks were recently assessed a prepayment insurance premium for the next 3 years in order to raise $45 billion into the FDIC insurance fund, which was due December 31st, 2009. Those fees are so onerous, so huge as compared to small community bank earnings, that it basically knocks the crap out of small bank earnings, which are critical for capital accumulation which drives lending ability. This is on top of an already increased premium by 200 percent in 2009. It drew $45 billion of liquidity from the banking system in stealth fashion at a time when banks need more liquidity to lend to consumers. It reduced capital levels in all banks. Another insane, stupid decision by the regulatory agency minions serving this Central Planner group. Why? Because the few large banks who are running our economy have no problem paying this FDIC prepayment fee thanks to all the cash they got from the Central Planners in the bailout plans. It is the small bank that did not need or desire to accept TARP funds that get punished. To quote the president of a community bank that I know well, "Unfortunately the community banks continue to feel the brunt of the financial crisis by bailing out the large banks and having to deal with the numerous new regulations enacted due to the actions of these large institutions. In addition, we are facing the possibility of yet another regulatory body, the Consumer Financial Protection Agency. The House recently narrowly passed the bill to create this agency. Hopefully you heard or read about Obama's "Fat Cat Bankers" interview. This just shows a complete lack of understanding by Obama regarding banking in that he continues to lump all banks together in his comments."

It is as if all economic policy has to be run by the few large Wall Street financial companies before adoption. They could care less what happens to the little guy. And, oh yeah, their earnings are just fine, thank you very much.

It this arrogance toward the masses and stupidity of economic policy that will ensure catastrophic wave (C ) down comes.

Ladder of Divine Ascent excerpt: Step 25- "On the destroyer of the pasions, most sublime humility"

22. It is a sign of the beginning of health when our thought no longer prides itself on its natural gifts. But as long as it has that stench in its nose, it cannot detect the fragrance of myrrh.   

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This month's archive can be found at: http://www.catholicprophecy.info/news2.html.


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